Tuesday, the 23rd of July, saw the news emerging from Beijing, China, that 14 Palestinian factions, led by Fatah and Hamas, signed a historic agreement to “end division and strengthen Palestinian unity”. The announcement followed reconciliation talks hosted by China, which came as Israel continued its relentless and genocidal war against the Gaza populace.
According to China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, “the core outcome is that the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) is the sole legitimate representative of all Palestinian people”. Additionally, “an agreement has been reached on post-Gaza war governance and the establishment of a provisional national reconciliation government.” This was further reinforced by the statements of Mustafa Barghouti, president of the Palestinian National Initiative, who was present at the talks and declared that “all the parties” have agreed that they should join the PLO and that the organisation would be the only legitimate representative of the Palestinians.
Many attempts have been made to reconcile the two sides before. Arab countries have tried since 2006, with efforts continuing as recently as 2022. Various agreements between both sides could not be implemented due to strong opposition from the Israeli, the United States, and th European Union (EU). A tactic that Israel routinely employs to disrupt these sorts of agreements involves withholding taxes that it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority (PA), the effective government of Palestine. Another such maneuver is Israel’s declaration of the annexation of yet more Palestinian territories following each announcement as a means of scoffing at any Palestinian aspirations of statehood.
America is also complicit in opposing Palestinian statehood. Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter was reported to have said in 2009 that the United States strongly opposes any Hamas involvement in any Palestinian-Israeli peace process.
British-Palestinian political commentator Dr Azzam Tamimi does not trust the mostly Fatah-composed PA at all. In a recent interview, he declared the Beijing declaration a mere public relations stunt. Tamimi is highly skeptical of the PA and its leader Mahmoud Abbas; the reasons for this skepticism can be understoodby looking at the history and trajectory of the PA.
The PLO (often regarded as Fatah’s functional equivalent) has dominated the PA government since the time of Yasser Arafat, its founding leader. After his demise, widely suspected to have been due to polonium poisoning by Mossad, he was succeeded by Mahmoud Abbas, also known by his moniker Abu Mazen. Abu Mazen did not welcome the idea of Hamas joining the PA government and sought to establish a stranglehold on top posts.
He thwarted any attempt to bring Hamas and other groups into his government. Pressure from Israel and the U.S. also increased his reluctance. Over the years, the Fatah-dominated PA grew to be more of Israel’s subservient tool for keeping Palestinians in the West Bank quiet. Palestinians as a whole despise Abu Mazen and his corrupt henchmen. A free and fair election among the Palestinians would swiftly see the casting out of Abu Mazen and his associates into the political wilderness, something he realises and is the main reason why there has not been an election in Palestine since 2007, following the one where Hamas won.
Hamas, all this while, has held the principle that Israel’s expulsion of over seven hundred thousand Palestinians in the 1948 Nakba and the takeover of their lands and properties ever since needs to be undone and should form the starting point of any negotiation for peace between Israel and the Palestinians. However, this is something Israel absolutely refuses to accept and negotiate.
On the other hand, the PLO has accepted this de facto, and ever since Arafat signed the 1993 Oslo Accords that birthed the PA, the latter has been looking to force Israel to agree to the pre-1967 borders. This is something that the Zionists, especially the far-right under the Netanyahu government, also refuse to agree upon. The far-right wants to annex the whole land of Palestine under the Greater Israel vision.
This difference stands as the most significant obstacle to unity between the two major Palestinian parties. Hostile relations between Hamas and the PA escalated into the Battle of Gaza, or the Gaza civil war, which was a brief conflict between Fatah and Hamas in the Gaza Strip from June 10 to 15, 2007. It was a prominent event in the Fatah-Hamas conflict, centered on the struggle for power after Fatah lost the 2006 Palestinian legislative election.
From 2007 until late 2022, successive attempts by Arab governments and organisations aimed to reconcile the two parties, with many agreements between both sides signed to wide acclaim. However, none of these treaties and agreements ever saw the light of day. Abu Mazen did not want Hamas in any coalition government and sought to put obstacles in their way.
Sadly, the failures of unity attempts only served to strengthen the Zionists and their American backers’ perceptions that the Palestinians would never consolidate. America blamed the Palestinians for the failure to negotiate for a Palestinian state.
These previous failures to achieve unity between the two major Palestinian parties coincident with exacerbations of hostility from the Israeli occupation, although they were not as horrific as what has taken place since October 7, 2023. The current genocidal war in Gaza, with more than 39,000 civilians slain, more than 91,000 injured, thousands more missing under the rubble, and the complete devastation of Gaza into-bombed out wastelands, is something far more severe and poses an existential threat to the denizens of Gaza.
Netanyahu’s clearly stated goal of displacing the whole Gaza population out into the Sinai desert and retaining permanent governance and control of Gaza (including the setting up of Israeli settlements in Gaza territory afterwards, as is usual business) has altered the balance of the equation from Hamas’ point of view.
Hamas sees that saving the Gazan population from the existential threat of genocide and rebuilding their enclave represents important objectives that supersede earlier considerations. 10 months of continuous war has inflicted untold misery upon the innocent civilian population. The time has come for a permanent ceasefire and for the killing to stop. A unity government, despite its obvious flaws and limitations, represents the best way forward to court world public favor and to move on to post-war rebuilding of Gaza.
The PA, powerless in Gaza and seemingly unable to protect its own Palestinian enclave in the West Bank from militant settler attacks, occupation forces raids and wanton killing of innocent citizens and takeover of their houses and lands, have been left watching helplessly on the sidelines. Abu Mazen so far has done absolutely nothing except to blame Hamas for starting the conflict and make meaningless pleas to Israel to stop the killings and accept a ceasefire.
The PA realises that Hamas has stolen their thunder with the Gaza war and subsequent international support, and sympathy for the Gazans and Hamas are at an all-time high. Should a ceasefire break out, PA might be sidelined by the international community in the whole peace process and lose its raison d’etre as the internationally recognised representative of the Palestinian people, unless it acts immediately and unites with Hamas.
So, this agreement in Beijing is also very much in PA’s interest as it confirms and reinforces the role of the PA in any future peace process (although this would mean sharing the bed with its erstwhile enemy). The PA also recognizes (although it never admits officially) that the Israeli government is merely prolonging the occupation to complete the annexation of the whole of Palestine and al-Aqsa Mosque.
Israel has never desired peace; it covets the whole land of Palestine and beyond (even the holy Muslim city of Madinah). Once Palestine is annexed and officially becomes a part of Israel, the role of PA will cease to exist and Abu Mazen and his ilk will find themselves back in the refugee camps in Lebanon. Hence, like it or not, the PA has no choice but to agree. The arguments put forward by the Chinese mediators no doubt play a massive role in bringing the opposing sides to the table and subsequent acceptance of the terms of agreement.
Of course there are risk factors to be mitigated. Will Mohamed Abbas deliver on his promises of reform where previously his actions did not match his bluster? Will the parties involved in the deal deliver their sides and commit on a long-term scale?
Things in Palestinian favour
In previous conflicts, Israel held superior military supremacy and the unquestioning loyalty and backing from the United States and almost European countries. Global public opinion favored the Israeli narrative. But the events that have unfolded since Oct 7, 2023 have since turned this around.
Global shift in sympathy away from Israel towards Palestine
Israel has lost sympathy worldwide – and this crucially the eroding trust of the American public that seemed to wake up from their stupor post-Oct 7. The Zionists’ perpetual narrative about being “innocent Nazi Holocaust victims” and the carefully nurtured image of being the Middle East’s “only democratic state” surrounded by despotic Arab countries and Palestinian terrorists intent on its destruction, have been exposed as pure lies.
The world has seen in real-time the murderous rampage the Israelis wreaked on Gaza and the ensuing genocide since. Protests against the war in Gaza have been staged across all major continents since the war began and these protests show no sign of decreasing. Ordinary citizens in major cities around the world march every week in support of a halt to violence and the slaughter of innocent children, women and old men in Gaza. Students camping out in US Ivy league universities demand a ceasefire and an end to university investments in organisations that are complicit in the genocide in Gaza.
Try as they may through covert censoring of the social media that they control, the Zionists seem to have failed and lost the tussle for public opinion big time. Palestinians have seized control of the battlefield of the mind on social media, and this is an acknowledged fact. 195 countries have recognised the Palestinian state. Many countries such as South Africa, Norway, Spain, Mexico, Brazil, Bolivia have fought for their cause in the United Nations (UN), something unheard of previously. The global tide of public opinion is firmly in Palestinian favor, something they have never enjoyed before.
Shattering the myth of Israeli army invincibility
The Israeli’s self-proclaimed label that they have the most moral and invincible army in the world was also shown to be nothing more than a fake claim. Social media from witnesses, independent observers, Palestinians and also social media postings uploaded by Israeli troops themselves have shown them to actually be a bunch of undisciplined, immoral and trigger-happy murderers of women, children and the elderly. In previous wars, Israel relied on overwhelming military superiority and surprise to inflict losses on its enemies. Previous wars ended very quickly in Israel’s favour, leading them to believe they were superior to their enemies.
Despite their overwhelming weaponry and endless supply of ammunition, 10 months into the war, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), despite their claims, are no closer to defeating the resistance in Gaza. Not having fought a war sustained this long, they are already suffering battle fatigue and losing hundreds of armored vehicles. They have lost the appetite for war. Tensions between the army and the Israeli cabinet have clearly broken out into the open, which is unprecedented. The war in Gaza has exposed serious deficiencies in Israel’s military strength and dented its image.
Israel’s Crumbling Economy
The war in Gaza, now entering its 10th month, has seen Israel’s economy tanking very badly. Foreign investments have dried up as investors flee for safer shores. Intel canceled plans for a 25 USD billion investment last June, as did Samsung. Two American churches recently announced they were divesting their Israel bonds. 46,000 businesses have closed since the Gaza war. Many organisations are working with insufficient personnel as their staff are conscripted to fight in the war in Gaza and against Lebanon. The port of Eilat has zero ships docked due to the blockade imposed by the Houthis. Israel’s Zman magazine reported that 470,000 Israelis have left the country since Oct 7. Amongst them include some of the brightest and best Israeli brains seeking safety elsewhere.
The longer the war drags on, the worse Israel’s economic position becomes. Fitch Ratings, the international credit rating provider, was reported on the 13th of August to have downgraded Israeli debt from an A+ to an A (almost reaching junk bond status), giving a gloomy outlook for the economy amidst warnings that the war might extend into 2025. As a small nation, Israel cannot maintain the fight with its economy in such a mess.
Internal tensions within Israel
Despite its apartheid policies and emphasis on the Jewish nature of Israel, there are deep internal fractures within the Jewish population even in critical times of war. Ultra-Orthodox Jews or Haredi Jews are furious because the supreme court ruled that they must serve in the Israeli Army. Since 1948, they have been exempted from military service and instead spend all their time studying the Torah in their yeshivas or religious classes. Totaling about 1.3 million (13.3 % of Israel’s population), they have vowed to defy the ruling and threatened to emigrate somewhere where they will be free to practice their religion. As thousands of Israeli soldiers have been killed or seriously wounded, Israel needs to replenish their troop strength and at the same time, the loss of the Haredi Jews would pose a big threat.
Netanyahu is currently on trial facing three charges of corruption. Many Israelis believe in his guilt, and that is why he wants, against the benefit of his state, to prolong the war in Gaza: to avoid losing power and being sentenced to jail. Also, the families of the hostages or Israelis currently held by Hamas are angry that he is purposely delaying a ceasefire with Hamas because he wants the war to continue even at their cost. They are demonstrating every week for him either to resign or free the prisoners.
Netanyahu also is managing an extreme right-wing coalition who have no wish for peace. Israeli Minister Bezalel Smotrich was widely condemned by world governments including US and EU for openly suggesting “that it was better to let the Palestinians in Gaza to starve to death but that the world might not allow it”. By so saying, he confirmed Israel’s genocidal intent towards the Palestinians, making the job of the International Criminal Court (ICC) much easier. Israel is fully on the way to be a pariah state shunned by the international community due to its apartheid policies and Jewish supremacy policies. The experience of South Africa has shown that international boycotts will make any nation reverse its policies. If not anything else, this is the most important achievement that Oct 7 has resulted in: the unveiling of the evil face of Zionism to the whole world.
Hence politically, militarily and economically, Israel is suffering major setbacks which have considerably diminished its global support and badly tarnished its image. So, its bargaining power in any future peace talks with the Palestinians will be considerably weakened, as it has never before been.
The US’ diminished role and Image
The US has proven to be Israel’s main source for arms, its financier, its military ally and its defence lawyer. Its media supports Israel by censoring news critical of Israel, under-reporting Israel’s crimes against humanity and publishing Israeli propaganda (which later were proven to be mere lies). However, the Gaza war has greatly diminished America’s image as a trustworthy, honest broker for peace and instead exposed it as a willing and active participant in committing the genocide of the 21st century. The fact that China brokered the deal between Hamas and the PA only shows that other nations are now usurping the role of international peacekeeper that the US takes as its God-given right. This is a big slap in the face for Uncle Sam, being upstaged by its rival China.
Most of the American public does not support Israel. Without intervention by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Israel would have lost the US establishment’s support as well. The pressure for a two-state solution generated by the war globally and within the United Nations is currently so great that the US cannot oppose it without courting world-wide condemnation. Hence, USA’s hegemony and its influence on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been diminished. Instead, China’s role has continued to shine as a serious state actor for international peace.
Conclusion
The call for setting up a free and independent Palestinian state has never been stronger any time in the whole 76 years of liberation struggle against the Zionists. If the Palestinian factions fail to take advantage of this, such an opportunity might never come again. The ball is firmly within the Palestinians’ own court, who need to make full use of this golden opportunity. What must be the overriding target is to have a permanent ceasefire in place, establish a viable and internationally recognised government and move on from there. At least on paper, Hamas and the PA have recognized this fact.
The Palestinians in Gaza have paid a terrible price in the number of lost lives, the wounded and those turned homeless in exchange for the Oct 7, 2023 Taufan Aqsa operation. Nonetheless, a sliver of light awaits the Palestinians if they can unite as world opinion has been turned on its head due to Israel’s hubris, arrogance and disregard for human lives. For once, Palestinians are viewed as heroes, resistance fighters for their own freedom against the Zionist oppressors.
The public image of Israel has been fatally injured. Palestinians have instead gained the world’s sympathies. People from both parties must demonstrate statesmanship and courage to work together under a unity government to realise a vision for a new dawn in Palestine. God willing, this can be a real possibility if both parties stay true to their agreement in Beijing.
